E3 2009: "Project Natal" What If

As cool as the new "Project Natal" technology is to see demonstrated, a lot of things have to go right for it to be a success. Here are a few I can think of off the top of my head.

IF...the technology is sound and precise.
IF...the applications and games are done well, which will obviously require a lot of developer support and many extra resources. After all, designing comprehensive AI like Milo for multiple NPCs in a game will likely be a daunting task.
IF...its cheap enough for the average Joe to afford - the price of a typical 360 game, $60 or less - without being cheaply designed or built.
IF...it is more than a gimmick with a few quirky "games" like the Wii was (and still is?).
IF...both hardcore and casual gamers can embrace the technology and not feel alienated (again, we don't want to get into another Wii situation).

All these factors and more have to align just right for this "Project Natal" technology to take off, perhaps with the addition of a small miracle. But, if anyone can do it, Microsoft can. These are the things people said about Xbox Live several years ago, and look where that service is now. Sony is still playing catch up.